Ordering likelihood and repeated chance experiments
"Let's think it through," says Ollie. "Some things are likely, some unlikely — and when we test, results can vary."
1. Put each event on the chance scale (impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, certain).
a) The sun will rise tomorrow.
b) Biscuit pulls the 1 green gumnut from 9 brown ones.
c) A tossed coin lands heads.
2. Biscuit's basket has 9 brown gumnuts and 1 green. Without looking, is pulling a brown one likely or unlikely? Why?
3. Predict: in 20 draws (replacing each time), how many do you think will be brown?
4. Run the experiment 20 times. Tally your results.
| Colour | Tally |
|---|---|
| Brown | |
| Green |
5. Did your results match your prediction exactly? Why might repeating give slightly different results each time?